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Resources Segment Killing Molycorp PDF Print E-mail
As the global economy continued on a downward trajectory, the pain ahead for Molycorp (NYSE:MCP) began to materialize in Q4 2012. The company was a play on skyrocketing rare earth prices. After rare earth miners like Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF) expanded rare earth supply, rare earth prices declined and so did Molycorp's going concern value. The company has lost money for nine consecutive quarters. For Q3 2014 Molycorp reported revenue of $124 million - down 17% Y/Y - and a net loss of $105 million. Its cash burn of $48 million was encouraging. However, the company still cannot cover its cost to produce rare earths; gross profit was -$15 million. Read more:
Sean Hannity Trolls Ferguson Politician, Patricia Bynes PDF Print E-mail

Sean Hannity of Fox News interviews Democratic Committeewoman Patricia Bynes on the recent death of Mike Brown at hands of police officer Darren Wilson. Hannity asked Ms. Bynes a question about her take on police brutality and racial profiling and then proceeded to (i) make up scenarios about the officer having an orbital eye socket fracture and (ii) cut the Committeewoman off while she was speaking. Hannity effectively acts like a troll in order to get a rise out of Ms. Bynes. Hannity's show must be struggling if he has to resort to trolling guests for ratings.

Ferguson: Unedited Video Of Mike Brown Buying Cigars PDF Print E-mail

Protests in Ferguson, MO after the fatal shooting of unarmed black teen, Mike Brown, by a police officer have been going on for over a week now. The Ferguson police department submitted video to the media making it appear that just before the encounter with Ferguson police officer, Darren Wilson, Brown had stolen cigarillos from Ferguson Market. The oddity is that [i] the store clerk never called to report a robbery and [ii] Brown's parents supposed requested a copy of the version Ferguson PD released to the media prior to the video's release, but was refused. The following unedited version of that video appears as if Brown actually paid for the cigars. At the 36 second mark, the store clerk appears with what seems to be currency for the cigars in his hand.

Excluding World Cup Impact, Twitter Worth $31 - $34 Per Share PDF Print E-mail
After Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) experienced a deterioration in operating metrics heading into Q2 earnings, I thought it would be D-Day for Twitter. However, the company exceeded the Street's estimates on growth in revenue, growth in monthly active users ("MAUs") timeline views, and user engagement. Management deflected questions over the World Cup impact on Q2 earnings, implying that outperformance was driven by product changes implemented by management. I fully expected the company to show results with and without the World Cup impact, similar to how Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSK), (NASDAQ:CMCSA) showed the impact of the Sochi Olympics on its Q1 2014 results. At least one other analyst was suspicious of Twitter's Q2 results. Read more:
Molycorp Is Worth $1.35 Per Share PDF Print E-mail
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE:MCP) announced a net loss of $84 million and cash burn of $80 million for Q2 2014, leaving the company with $157 million of cash on hand. The earnings report was completely overshadowed by a $400 million financing package from Oaktree Capital, solving the company's immediate capital needs and putting an end to the short thesis. Investors reacted to the news by sending the stock from $2.00 per share to above $2.30. After digesting news of the financing package, which has yet to be consummated, investors turned sour on the stock, and it now trades below $2.00 per share again. Up to $400 million in new debt at 12% will weaken Molycorp's capital structure and create more interest burden. In my previous article, I updated my cash burn projections based on Q2 actual results. Read more:
Red Herring In Twitter's "Facebook-like" Ad Revenue Model PDF Print E-mail
Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) and Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) are both social media platforms. Investors will forever link the two and pour over Twitter's revenue growth and operating metrics in relation to Facebook's. The company has also been unable to monetize its user base at the same rate as Facebook. Twitter's ad revenue per user ("ARPU") during Q2 was $1.02 versus Facebook's $2.24. So how does Twitter respond? It is revamping how it charges ad revenue so that it is more akin to Facebook's ad model. According to the Wall Street Journal, Twitter is remodeling the way it charges advertisers in a move to battle Facebook over small business customers. Currently advertisers pay Twitter when a users click on their ads, "re-tweet" or "favorite" them. The company is now raising the bar pursuant to user engagement. Read more:
Molycorp: 4 Reasons Why Bond Holders Are "Mullets" PDF Print E-mail

During my old deal days, whenever an investor - senior debt, subordinated debt, equity - placed capital that did not fully reward it for the risk taken we exclaimed, "That's mullet money." In reality, a mullet is a dumb fish that sits at the bottom of the ocean. If a fish swims into its mouth, it eats. Otherwise, it starves to death. So mullet money is another word for "dumb money." That's what entered my mind a few days away when Molycorp's (NYSE:MCP) bonds surged after a peer received equity funding.

Bonds of Molycorp Inc., the owner of the largest rare-earth deposit outside of China, rose to the highest level in more than a month after a peer sold shares and its chief executive officer indicated raising equity was an option to combat dwindling cash.  Read more:

Molycorp: Sans Oaktree Financing, Q1 2015 Bankruptcy Likely PDF Print E-mail

For a company whose market capitalization is under $1 billion, Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE:MCP) sure has a lot of rabid interest. Longs think the company offers an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a rebound in rare earth prices. Shorts think the company is headed for bankruptcy. My previous short thesis projected the company running out of cash by Q1 2015. Below were my original cash burn projections:

Q1 2014 is traditionally Molycorp's lowest quarter due to seasonality, so taking cash out flow from operations of $46 million and projecting that out was not very popular with longs. Based on the high level analysis, I projected the company could run out of cash by Q1 2015. Read more:

Video: Financial Literacy Presentation at Toronto PL PDF Print E-mail

The following video highlights my recent speech at the Toronto Public Library as part of the Treehouse Talks series - Financial Literacy: If a 12 Year Old Can Master it, so Can You.


Moody's Cuts Molycorp To "Caa2:, Notes Debt Level May Be Unsustainable PDF Print E-mail
Everyone who has read my articles knows I am bearish on Molycorp, Inc. I believe the stock is overvalued given the potential for a dilutive event and the convertible bonds are worth from 3-5 cents on the dollar  ... Today the stock rallied inexplicably. The shares closed up $0.16 (5.94%) to $2.94/share on trading volume of 11.8 million; average trading volume is approximately 4.6 million. Some attributed the move to a nondescript press release from management that the company had settled claims with M&K Chemical Engineering Consultants. The claims arose from a commercial dispute pursuant to the modernization of the company's Mountain Pass facility; the terms of the settlement were confidential.  Read more:
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