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Weatherford - Will Bondholders Revolt Due To "Fraudulent Conveyance?" PDF Print E-mail
Weatherford International's recent equity raise has been a boon to the stock. The company's debt/EBITDA was over 8x and with over $1B in principal payments due over the next 18 months, the company seem headed for a certain default. Weatherford's bankers -- JP Morgan and Morgan -- helped the company raise $630MM last month. It was expected to shore up its capital base and liquidity. However, the lion's share of the proceeds are expected pay down a $967MM revolving credit facility owed to JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Not only was the offering prohibited by Glass-Stegall ( http://www.newyorkshockexchange.com/content/view/912/37/ ), but it appears to represent "fraudulent conveyance."
Video: Lakers' D'Angelo Russell "Informs" On Nick Young PDF Print E-mail
The L.A. Lakers are in a state of turmoil. At 16-62 they are the second-worst team in the "L". You would think these guys would not want to bring any extra attention to themselves. However, it's only off the court that they make any noise. Rookie D'Angelo Russell secretly recorded a conversation with Nick Young where Young admitted to being involved with women other than his girlfriend. Young is in very public relationship with rapper Iggy Azalea. Somehow the video was posted on line and subsequently went viral. With females like Russell on the team it's no wonder the Lakers can't win.
NJ Roadrunners Tyler Roberson In Elite 8 PDF Print E-mail

It has been a minute since we held Shock Exchange Comes to Harlem -- one of the best tournaments in the city. Yesterday Phil Booth of Villanova punched his ticket to the Final Four. Phil took the haute couture in the 12U division with the Sam Cassell All-Stars in 2008. Tyler Roberson of the NJ Roadrunners was in our event twice. His team won the 17U bracket in 2012. He's in the Elite 8 with Syracuse as they battle Virginia. Here's Tyler with Tom, me and the Roadrunners from back in the day.


Shock Exchange Values Weatherford's Bonds At 40 Cents On The Dollar PDF Print E-mail

ImageIt has been a whirlwind month for Weatherford. Just when the oilfield services giant was left for dead it raised $630 million in equity. The lion's share of the proceeds will be used to repay a revolver owed to JP Morgan. I estimate that the company is insolvent even after the equity raise. The company's assets are overstated by at least $6.6 billion which would give it negative equity of 1.6 billion. Its bonds were trading at cents on dollar, but have since rallied. However, Weatherford still does not have the capital to meet a $600 million principal payment in Q2 2017. Secondly, I believes the company's bonds are worth about 40 cents on the dollar. My analysis is preliminary, but 40 cents would give me a potential return of 100% on my investment. That's the type of return I would demand from a company this indebted and where there's a real risk of losing my entire investment.

National Oilwell Varco: Wave The Dividend Goodbye PDF Print E-mail
ImageNational Oilwell Varco NOV is known as one of the best-managed oilfield services companies in the business. Management's cost containment efforts and pristine balance sheet have buoyed the company amid the rout in oil prices. I have been an NOV bear for over year now, claiming the stock was overvalued given its earnings prospects. However, bulls have ignored me given [i] the company's consistent dividends and [ii] an eventual rebound in oil prices. A commenter on my previous article had this to say:
Video: Rufus R. "Freight Jones" Stomps Ric Flair at Trump Rally Tucson, "Wooo! Wooo!" PDF Print E-mail

Donald Tump rallies get more interesting by the week. First there were black protestors -- sitting peacefully -- being removed by Trump in order to get publicity. Then the protesters clashed with police. Now the protestors and Trump supporters are getting into fisticuffs. A few weeks ago a random supporter sucker punched a black protester while he was being escorted off. And just when you thought you'd seen it all, Rufus R. "Freight Train" Jones punched, kicked and suplexed Ric Flair at a Trump rally in Tucson. (Ric Flair voice) "Woooo! Woooo!"

Unlike Taurean Prince, Wichita State's Ron Baker Receives Sympathy After NCAA Loss PDF Print E-mail

ImageI am a contrarian by nature and tend to root for the underdog in the NCAA tournament. Over the past few years Wichita State has showed out and given America some great memories. First of all the Shockers play the game the right way. The hard-nosed defense, all five guys rebound, and on off, they share the basketball. Baker, Fred Van Vleet were the stars of the team. However, nobody cared to got the credit and they put W's above personal gain. You can put former Shocker and current Knick, Cleanthony Early, in that category too. Secondly, the Shockers are nostalgic. I grew up watching Antoine Carr, Xavier McDaniel and Cliff Levingston give teams the business back in the day. 

"Nine Words" Caused Fed To Tamp Down Rate Expectations PDF Print E-mail

ImageThe Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged as expected. The Fed also projected two quarter point rate hikes -- fewer than what had previously been envisioned. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has cited the Fed's data dependency -- usually concerning inflation and unemployment figures. On Wednesday she introduced nine words that could prompt the Fed to keep rates steady for some time: "Global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks." I assumed Yellen would reference the global economy some time during the meeting. However, making it another key data point in deciding whether to hike rates sounds to me like a sea change. Read more:

Valeant Hit My $35 Price Target; Now What? PDF Print E-mail
ImageTuesday the Valeant (NYSE:VRX) released preliminary unaudited Q4 financial results and it did not go well. I perused the results, saw that the 2016 revenue forecast was shy of previous estimates and assumed the stock would rise 10% as usual. By mid-morning my brokerage account had gone haywire; VRX had free fallen 45% and my long-dated puts were deep in the money.
Cameron International Is In For A World Of Hurt PDF Print E-mail
I have been following Cameron International (NYSE:CAM) ever since Q4 2014 when the divergence in oil prices looked like it was here to stay. However, I got greedy and forgot to take profits on my short play. I am still chafing from losses I incurred after Schlumberger's (NYSE:SLB) ill-fated takeover announcement in August. Cameron has since flown under the radar as longs await the deal closing. That said, oil prices are expected to be "lower for longer" and so is Cameron's business outlook. Read more:
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