 Follow the Shock Exchange? In June legendary value investor, Warren Buffett, was called by Congress to testify on the financial crisis. Bufett is one of the most respected investors in the world and is known for his philosophy of investing only in those businesses you understand. "If you can't explain a company's business model to a six year old, then you shouldn't invest in it". Due to his firm's investment in Moody's, Buffett was expected to be a key person to help get to the bottom (no pun intended) of the housing/financial crisis and the role that credit agencies played. The gist of Buffett's testimony was that he also did not see the financial crisis coming. However, if he had followed the New York Shock Exchange's advice on the economy, housing and ultimately the Market, Buffett could have avoided the crisis >> http://clicky.me/4WW . Below are Buffett's comments on the crisis in June 2010 vs. the Shock Exchange's predictions of the crisis in March 2008:
Buffett - June 2010In the end I don't know who, except for maybe John Paulson or Michael Murray who would have been running Moody's and come up with different ratings. Shock Exchange - March 2008There has been a lot of changes to the economy since July 2006 when the Shock Exchange made its first investments. At March 2008 the US is suffering from declining economic activity, rising unemployment, and record foreclosures caused by real estate speculation. Buffett - June 2010 This was the greatest bubble I have ever seen in my life. The entire American public was caught up in a belief that the housing market could not fall dramatically. Freddie MAC, Fannie MAE, Congress believed it, the media believed, I believed. If I had seen what was coming would I have held my Moody's stock? Shock Exchange - March 20082008 represents one of the worst U.S. economies since the last time we experienced stagflation - the 1970's when Richard Nixon was in office . . . What makes the situation even more dire is that there does not seem to be any relief in sight. Our presidential candidates have not acknowledged the situation or devised any concrete steps to address it. If the next President wants to accomplish something concrete then he/she should . . . Buffett - June 2010 Very, very few people could appreciate the bubble . . . I am much less inclined to come down hard on people who made a mistake that 300 million other Americans made. Shock Exchange - March 2008The economy is in the midst of "stagflation" - rising unemployment and rising costs (oil), which is the economic equivalent of the perfect storm. Rising oil prices are caused by external forces such as (i) the war in Iraq and which has lead to a decline in Iraqi oil production, (ii) reduction in oil production from key producers such as OPEC, Russia, and Venezuela, and (iii) some say oil speculators who may be influencing the price (I'm not sure I buy this one). |